Investing in the stock market: What profits can you expect over 10 years? The aim of this article is to give a simplified overview 😉
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Warning : This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Each investor should assess their own financial situation before making any decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Introduction: Investing in the stock market: What profits can be expected over 10 years?
When starting to invest in the stock market, one question often comes up: How much can one expect to earn over 10 years?
The answer is simple… and a little frustrating: No one can know for sure. !
However, it is possible to examine the historical performance of financial markets to get a sense of scale and trends. While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, it does provide a better understanding of the potential of a long-term investment.
In this article, we will analyze the historical returns of several broadly diversified portfolios in order to answer this question.
Can stock market returns be predicted?
The answer is no.
Financial markets are constantly evolving under the influence of numerous factors, for example:
- economic growth
- inflation
- interest rates
- geopolitical events
- financial crises
No investor, no economist, and no expert can accurately predict the stock market's performance over the next ten years.
That is why it is essential to always keep this key rule in mind:
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
In other words, The figures presented in this article are purely historical data. They allow us to better understand what has happened so far, but in no way constitute a promise of return.
Why look at past performance?
Even if they do not allow us to predict the future, historical performance remains very useful.
They allow, in particular, to:
- understanding long-term market behavior
- observe the differences between several investment strategies
- set realistic expectations before investing
In the stock market, an investment horizon of ten years or more is generally recommended. Over short periods, markets can experience significant fluctuations. Conversely, these fluctuations often tend to moderate when investing over the long term (more than 10 years).
Why use ETFs for investing?
For this analysis, I am deliberately focusing on AND F (exchange-traded funds).
An ETF allows you to invest simultaneously in hundreds, or even thousands, of companies. This diversification reduces the risk associated with any one particular company.
Conversely, buying a single share exposes you more to the difficulties that this company might encounter.
ETFs are therefore a simple and widely used solution for long-term investing.
Example: VOO and VT ETFs
Let's now look at two very popular ETFs.
VOO
VOO replicates the S&P 500 index and invests in the 500 largest American companies.
Between January 2014 and December 2023, its annualized return was approximately 12%.
VT
The Vanguard Total World (VT) ETF invests in several thousand companies spread across the world.
Over the same period, its annualized return is approximately 8,1%.
However, if you want to be more cautious with these investments, estimate a lower future return. For example:
- S&P 500 ETF = 10% annualized
- Global Growth ETF = 7% annualized
It's better to estimate a low return and get a high return than the other way around…
Example: the 3a Finpension Global 100 and VIAC Global 100 portfolios
In Switzerland, it is also possible to invest in the stock market through its 3rd pillar. Among the best-known solutions, my favorites are Finpension Global 100 And VIAC Global 100.
These two portfolios invest almost entirely in equities spread across the globe. While their composition is not exactly identical, their investment philosophy is very similar: to seek long-term growth through broad international diversification.
Unlike an ETF such as VOO or VT, these solutions are integrated into a 3a pension account. They therefore allow Swiss residents to benefit from the tax advantages linked to the third pillar., while remaining invested in the financial markets.
In terms of performance, Finpension Global 100 and VIAC Global 100 often follow global markets. Their historical performance is similar to that of an international equity portfolio., although there are differences due to their allocation, foreign exchange hedging, fees and the obligation to invest a significant portion in Swiss francs according to the regulations of pillar 3a.
Between 2013 and 2025, the 10-year annual return varied between 6.5% and 9.5% per year on average, depending on the period analyzed.
Let us therefore estimate an annualized return of 7.5% in CHF.
Comparison of historical performance
| Invest | Annualized return over 10 years* |
|---|---|
| VOO (S&P 500)* | ≈ 12 % (in USD) |
| VT (World)* | ≈ 8 % (in USD) |
| VIAC Global 100* Or Finpension Global 100* | ≈ 7.5% (in CHF) + tax reduction |
The figures correspond to the periods studied in this article.
These results highlight several interesting points.
First of all, the American market, The US market, represented here by the VOO ETF, has recorded particularly strong performance over the last decade. This growth is largely due to the robust performance of many large American companies, especially in the technology sector.
A global portfolio, Like the VT ETF, it offers much greater diversification since it invests in several thousand companies spread across numerous countries. This diversification generally reduces the risk associated with a single market, but it can also lead to more modest returns when the United States outperforms the rest of the world.
Portfolios VIAC Global 100 And Finpension Global 100 They also follow a broadly diversified global strategy. Their historical performance is therefore close to that of a global ETF. However, it is slightly different, notably because a portion of the investments is made in Swiss francs and because Pillar 3a portfolios must comply with certain regulatory constraints specific to Swiss pension schemes.
Should I invest my entire portfolio in a US 100% ETF?
Should you invest only in the United States? Not necessarily.
The performance observed between 2013 and 2025 corresponds to a period in which the American market largely dominated other regions of the world.
However, history shows that financial markets operate in cycles. It is entirely possible that the next ten years will be different and that other regions of the world will perform better.
This is why many investors prefer a balanced approach between a US 100% ETF and a globally diversified ETF.
This strategy does not seek to guess which country will perform best tomorrow, but to take advantage of the growth of the global economy in the long term while limiting the risk associated with a single market.
Beware of the fees
The yields shown above are gross yields.
In practice, the actual return received by an investor is generally lower, particularly due to:
- ETF management fees
- broker fees and exchange fees
- taxes on capital gains or dividends
- of inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of the gains made.
These factors must be taken into account when estimating the true performance of one's portfolio.
What real return can be expected over 10 years?
History shows that a broadly diversified equity portfolio has often generated an annual return of approximately: over the long term (more than 10 years).
- 10-12% annualized for the US market
- 7-9% annualized for the global market
- 7-9% annualized (in CHF) for the best 3a global accounts 100 in Switzerland
Note that this profitability is calculated on a gross basis. If we remove fees, taxes and inflation, the real return decreases by about 1-3% per year.
However, it is impossible to know if this performance will be repeated in the future. Nothing is guaranteed!
Focus on the concrete
Rather than trying to predict future returns, it is generally wiser to focus on the elements that one can control, for example:
- invest regularly
- maintain a long investment horizon
- diversify your portfolio
- limit costs as much as possible
- choose a less taxable strategy
Conclusion
It is impossible to know in advance what return the stock market will produce over the next ten years.
On the other hand, historical data shows that a diversified equity investment has often delivered attractive long-term performance.
These figures should be considered as benchmarks, not guarantees. Financial markets experience periods of both rise and fall, sometimes lasting for several years.
Investing in the stock market therefore remains a powerful tool for growing one's wealth, provided that one invests patiently, remains diversified and accepts a degree of uncertainty.
FAQ: Investing in the stock market: what profits can be expected over 10 years?
What return can one expect from investing in the stock market over 10 years?
Historically, a diversified equity portfolio has often generated between 7 and 10 percent annual gross returns over a period of ten years or more. However, these returns vary depending on the markets, the time period, and fees. Past performance is never indicative of future results.
Is it realistic to earn 10% per year in the stock market?
Yes, some indices like the S&P 500 have posted annual returns close to 10 to 12 over long periods. However, there's no guarantee that this level of performance will be repeated in the future. It's generally more prudent to base projections on more conservative return assumptions.
How much does an investment of 10,000 CHF yield over 10 years?
The final amount depends on the annual return. For example, with an average annual return of 7%, an investment of CHF 10,000 could reach approximately CHF 19,700 after ten years thanks to compound interest. This calculation is a simulation and not a guarantee.
Is it better to invest in an S&P 500 ETF or a global ETF?
An S&P 500 ETF offers exposure to the largest US companies and has historically delivered excellent performance. A global ETF, on the other hand, invests in thousands of companies across different countries, allowing for greater diversification. The choice depends on your strategy and risk tolerance.
Are ETFs suitable for a 10-year investment?
Yes. ETFs are particularly well-suited to long-term investors thanks to their low fees, diversification, and simplicity. An investment horizon of at least ten years generally allows for better absorption of financial market fluctuations.
What fees reduce the real return on a stock market investment?
The gross return is reduced by several factors: management fees (TER), brokerage fees, exchange rate fees, applicable taxes, and inflation. Depending on the circumstances, the actual return may be 1 to 3 percentage points lower per year.
Is investing via a 3a account a good way to invest in the stock market in Switzerland?
For many Swiss residents, a Pillar 3a account invested in equities allows them to benefit from both the potential of the financial markets and tax advantages. Solutions like Finpension Global 100 or VIAC Global 100 offer global exposure while complying with Pillar 3a regulations.
Is it possible to lose money investing in the stock market for 10 years?
Yes. Even over a ten-year period, no performance is guaranteed. However, historically, the risk of loss has tended to decrease as the investment period lengthens and the portfolio is broadly diversified.
Why is it better to invest regularly rather than all at once?
Regular investing helps smooth out the purchase price of assets over time and reduces the impact of market fluctuations. This approach is often recommended for investors who want to gradually build their wealth.
What is the best advice for investing in the stock market over the long term?
The best strategy generally involves investing regularly, diversifying your portfolio, limiting fees, maintaining a long-term investment horizon, and avoiding emotionally driven decisions. Discipline is often more important than seeking maximum returns.
Investing in the stock market: What profits can you expect over 10 years?
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Investing in the stock market: What profits can you expect over 10 years?
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